Statistics Definitions

Statistics is one of those terms which mean different things to different people, even within the profession.   There's good reason for that, given the wide scope from high end methodical development through to National Statistics.     In the simplest of terms a statistic can just be a data item (a datum, the singular of data), through to a number emerging from a statistical technique (such as r-squared in regression).

Source: www.statistics2013.org

Statistics becomes the process around all of that, including the analysis and interpretation.Hence there's not a specific definition in the Royal Statistical Society's new strategy.  The strap line now is data, evidence, decisions.  And "analysis" nearly had a place in there.

However for the International Year of Statistics (2013statistics.org) there's a practical set of definitions which encompass that scope:

• The science of learning from (or making sense out of) data
• The theory and methods of extracting information from observational data for solving real-world problems
• The science of uncertainty
• The quintessential interdisciplinary science
• The art of telling a story with [numerical] data

Source: A Career in Statistics: Beyond the Numbers by Gerald Hahn and Necip Doganaksoy:

So broadly the science of collecting and analysing data, and increasingly in so many areas that impact on everyday life.  Again the International Year of Stats has helpfully distil that big picture purpose too, focussing on the increasing government and business appetite for properly data driven decisions across that touch our lives in so many ways.

UK Statistical Policy Landscape Infographic

There's a strong emergence of the infographic, helping to make numbers more visual - a varied mix of shapes, colours, numbers and words.  Some are able to tell the story better than others, and variably able get over a key message or two, but none the less a very positive and welcome direction of travel.

The statistics world is going through some similarly positive moves to strengthen the impact and visibility that statistics and statistical analysis can have.   So our Royal Statistical Society has a new strategy for that, plus a stronger focus around the strap line of data-evidence-decisions.   (In fact, analysis has a part in there too and was part of the consideration).

At some point there's be some convergence between the increasingly open data that feeds lots of  the infographics, and the more long standing stats and analysis world, and especially around that Open data which is Public. 

So as a contribution to that convergence....here's my infographic which represents the current statistical policy landscape.

This was presented at the Royal Statistical Society's 2013 Annual International Conference. 2-5 September in Newcastle.

Purpose: This poster provides the macro scope, influences and connections of the UK statistical policy environment. It is also a consolidated reference source in it's on right with the key messages and emphasis emerging. It's a particular take on the ever popular infographic trend, presenting our environment in a strategic and visual way to create interest and support debate and discussion.

Abstract - This infographic presents and inter-relates the key components of the UK's statistical policy landscape.  The scope includes key bodies, legislation, policy, guidance, and key contextual factors and influences.   This provides a single strategic visual overview and reference source, illustrating the evolution, relationship and synthesis of those components over the last decade.  This also helps to illustrate to a lay audience the extent and development of the background rigour and governance in public data management, use and communication.

International Year of Statistics 2013

UK Royal Statistical Society

So 2013 is the International Year of Statistics.  Recognising the contributions of statistics to society worldwide.  It's being coordinated through statistics2013.org on behalf of the international professional statistical bodies.

It's all based around the fact that statistics have powerful and far-reaching effects on everyone, and trying to get that message over.

More than 2,000 organizations—professional statistical societies, colleges and universities, primary and secondary schools, businesses, government entities, and research institutes are participating in this worldwide event.


There's a helpful breadth of definitions of what statistics is....

• The science of learning from (or making sense out of) data

• The theory and methods of  extracting information from observational data for solving real-world problems

• The science of uncertainty

• The quintessential inter-disciplinary science

• The art of telling a story with [numerical] data

And curious and wide ranging examples of the areas in which statistics impact....

Foods you eat
Weather forecasts
Assessing disease risks
Protecting your pet’s health
Improving your health care
Transportation systems you use
Assessing your credit worthiness
Pricing your insurance policies
Ensuring national security
Examining economic health
Prosecuting criminals
Ensuring the safety of medicine
Assessing teacher effectiveness
Monitoring climate change

And predicting the need 4.4m statistical jobs in coming years, a taster for that applied work...

• Estimating the safety of nuclear power plants and alternative energy sources
• Evaluating the impact of air, water, and soil pollution
• Estimating the unemployment rate of a country
• Analysing consumer demand for products and services
• Designing studies for and analyzing data from agricultural experiments to increase crop productivity and yields

So that all has a global generic take of course, but the value shines though.  And then there's the homage to the great statisticians.....one per month over the next 12 months.

So wishing the project a fair wind and a good impact.

Source: www.statistics2013.org

Statistical Steerage

April sees the change at the helm of the UK Statistics Authority.  That can be helpful stock-take  point to get a big picture sense of where things are, and where they are going. 


UKSA was created by the Statistics and Registration Service Act of 2007 and came into being on 1st April 2008 (See Statutory Statistical).  The Authority's statutory objective is to promote and safeguard the production and publication of official statistics that serve the public good. It is also required to promote and safeguard the quality and comprehensiveness of official statistics, and ensure good practice in relation to official statistics. 

Interestly, the Chair of UKSA is Crown appointment, made with the approval of Parliament following a pre-appointment hearing before the House of Commons Public Administration Select Committee and a formal motion debated on the floor of the House of Commons.  The first five years have been under the stewardship of Sir Michael Scholar KCB.  The baton has now been handed over to Andrew Dilnot CBE.  An eminent public figure (Institute of Fiscal Studies, Social Security Advisory Committee, the National Consumer Council)  and indeed the founding presenter of  Radio 4's more or less show about stats in real life issues.  A good provenance then. 

So where are we.  In short the UKSA has been doing three things:

1. Code of Practice for Official Statistics.  Creating what is in essence the guide to best practice context for data - consolidating, refining and developing lots of guidance over the decade from amongst others, the Audit Commission, HM Treasury, Cabinet Office.  Covering 74 business processes (principles, protocols, practices) from consultation on needs through to publication processes.  It is quite a challenge to get right, and helpfully sets the bar high.  In the spirit of the original Chinese saying...."If you aim for the top of the tree you'll probably never leave the ground, but if you aim for the moon you might at least get to the top of the tree".  Fundamental here is that this is a generic code, and applicable to "official" as opposed to just "national" statistics.  Some interesting emphasis has follow on this.  


2. National Statistics Stamp.  Steadily working through the entire scope of national statistics and given them the stamp of approval, resulting in:


- Assessment Reports: Currently 190 and counting. 
- Breach Reports in respect of the Code: 59.  
- Issues Log for issues highlighted to UKSA in 11/12: 50


3. Challenging and championing.  In respect of the use of official statistics.  Leading and supporting some of the very technical debates (Retail Prices Index etc.) and at the other end of the spectrum. very publically challenging the inappropriate use of statistics by those who should know better.  Ministerial apologies being a familiar outcome.


So where are we going.  Perhaps most indicative at such a pivot point are the parting shots from the previous chair and the very early signs from the new chair.


A. Administrative data is an opportunity


This is a significant and substantive outgoing message.  It's all about the use of administrative date for statistical purposes.  Building on some earlier debate about the boundaries of management information, statistical, research administrative data. In short how administrative data - process data collected not primarily for statistical purposes - can be effectively embraced and harnessed for statistical use, with the right expert engagement and with important caveats too.
   
The wordcloud of the UKSA letter to the Cabinet Office on the use of administrative data....

In fact data is data.  It's all of the other things which are different and determinate. Purpose, definition, methodology, accuracy, scope and so on  (See Data Provenance).  Understanding that context is the key to unlocking whatever the potential might be.  So having compartmentalised data to help clarify and understand, there is a timely opportunity to bind them together in an informed and useful way.  


B. Interpretation is key.


The UKSA has created a foundation to explore the importance of the role of interpretation. After all the data the means to an end - specifically the means to the message.  This has been encouraged and supported by the influential Public Administration Select Committee "recommends that the Statistics Authority should take a proactive role in ensuring that data released is intelligible, objectively interpreted and in a readily accessible format"


This is also emphasised in some of the correspondence to MPs encouraging "more systematic public presentation of all the relevant statistical material along with appropriate professional explanation and guidance".   This was reflected more generally in the significant and succinct UKSA guidance on The Value of Statistical Commentary, previously discussed in Age of Analysis.


This is clearly echoed by the incoming chair, in the second sentence of the initial statement... "I care.... not just about the numbers themselves but about the ways in which they are used and interpreted", and "the need and value of sound and strong statistical analysis" and that "impartial commentary, explanation, and tools for dissemination are critical to our success".   Here's the word-cloud for that opening statement...

So the debate starts to move beyond data into the surrounding analytical and interpretation.  That said the early emerging focus is around what might be described "interpretation of tables"
rather than "process of analysis" from which insight and messages are distilled and synthesised, and of course where the real value is realised. A means to a greater end (see Impactometer).

Hence data is the foundation, and the debate progresses to value the analytical processes that build on and around that.  Probably not helped by the ease by which the term statistics is interpreted so differently  - from "the quantitative data" through to the "science concerned with the collection, classification and interpretation of quantitative data".  So statistics is both the data and the interpretation.  Of course, not forgetting the specific statistical techniques which can produce statistics.....  

Data Directive Decade

The previous decade provided a suite of best practice guidance on "data".  Key guidance came from the Audit Commission, HM Treasury, Cabinet Office, National Audit Office, and the Office for National Statistics.  So opening the debate and raising the bar on the appropriate use and management of data.

This all helpfully culminated in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics provided by the UK Statistics Authority - the defining guidance of best practice around data, with both great scope and depth.  That code is also quite challenging, so there's still some way to go in practice.  That also provides a strong foundation for other sectors too - after all it's about building on the right principles which are generally cross sector.

Projects - Management and Delivery

There are plenty of project management methodologies with their respective emphasis and strengths.  When we look into the heart of projects it is simply about balancing management and delivery.

Management

The management is the oversight which should increase the chances of the project being a success.  Hence the management is a means to an end.  That end being the project delivery.  Management uses project tools – business case, risk log, communication plan, financial profiles etc – These are ephemeral, they exist within the life of the project.  

Delivery

A project is about delivering something specific and explicit.  It has some clear purpose which is the driving influence.  Delivery results in specific project outputs or products.  These are the reason the project exists, and represents the project legacy.

Both Management and Delivery need to be both effective and visible. This gives the four pillars of success:

• Effective Management - the application of  successful governance and management 
• Effective Delivery - the successful delivery of the project purpose
• Visible Management - transparency of the management and governance
• Visible Delivery - transparency of the delivery which constitutes success for the project.

There is a balance of effort between management and delivery to get just right.  It’s quite easy to become a slave to the project tools – project software in particular – and all the necessary governance administration.  Equally an over emphasis on delivery can mean that the checks and balances are missed, and that can effect both project effectiveness and it's perception.

Equally there's an important balance between actual delivery and the visibility of that delivery.  Often it's easy to see lots of management tools being frequently updated during the life of the project, especially if the actual project products may emerge more slowly or even not until the end.

So plenty of science, but some art too.


 

99% Disambiguation

Disambiguous.  That's the plural of sale.  Also defined as clarification that follows from the removal of ambiguity.

With some of the grand and overt promotion that goes with Sales, there might well be some contradiction here in these two definitions. Some of the proportionality implied in those marketing materials might raise an eyebrow at the very least.

Here's some sale posters for a leading high street clothing retailer of over 100 years...

Notice the "selected lines" tucked in at the bottom under the "50% off sale".  Not much emphasis there.

Might we reasonably expect the space given over the the "50% discount, compared to the space given to "selected lines" to be in some way proportionate.  So the spatial emphasis gives us a fair sense of the lines in the "50% off sale".

Let's measure.

So in comparative terms, the "50% off sale" gets 100.8 sq units compared to 1,08 sq units for "Selected lines".

That works out at 99% of the spatial emphasis on the "50% off sales". Assuming some reasonable sense of proportionality, that might well lead us to assume that the discount might well apply to 99% of lines.  That's nearly everything (assuming of course that all "lines" have a similar number of items).  Perhaps we might be surprised if all bar 1% of the lines had 50% off.  Perhaps we're used to this so much, that we just know that's not going to be the case..... 

So perhaps Disambiguation might well be the right term, which intuitively seems to be more about disingenuous ambiguity.....

With the shift to more overt ethically produced clothing, then how about a shift to more proportionate marketing of those clothes....